MUTING THE UNP DEFECTORS AND BASIL'S BUDGET PLANS

sandman

ARTICLE FROM THE SUNDAY LEADER FROM THE POTSHOTS COLUMN :

Muting the UNP defectors and Basil's budget plan

Irrespective of the large number of members in the government it is but one person who wields the decision-making powers with regard to the government's political agenda, and that is Presidential Advisor and Parliamentarian, Basil Rajapakse.

The person in-charge of decision-making in the government holds much power.

After planning for months, Basil has finally drawn up the next agenda for the government. That is to plan how the government could reap the maximum benefits if and when the security forces capture Kilinochchi.

According to Basil's plan, a few weeks after the security forces capture Kilinochchi, the government is to dissolve the rest of the provincial councils to hold fresh elections.

Although Basil was in the process of forming the necessary background to carry out his new agenda, he encountered an obstacle. Disturbed by this development, Basil laid aside his plan to hold elections in the rest of the provincial councils and began to address the problem at hand.

Budget blues

The new problem was related to the budget that is to be presented in parliament on November 6. Everyone believed that with the JVP's Wimal Weerawansa and ten others defecting from the party in support of the government, there would be no problem in getting the budget proposals for 2009 passed in parliament.

Although there were stories that made the rounds on several occasions that the 17 UNP defectors as well as some of Weerawansa's supporters were having problems, Basil did not pay much attention to them as he did not expect that it would have a direct impact on the government.

However, the Rajapakses were compelled to open their eyes when President Mahinda Rajapakse's candidate for the post of leader of the house of the North Central Provincial Council was defeated by the UNP nominee.

The Rajapakses also realised that former minister Mangala Samaraweera was the man behind the defeat in the NCP.

The Rajapakses also realised that Samaraweera has once again come back to haunt the government and irrespective of the outcome of the budget vote, the government would have a real challenge to face during the period.

Unhappy crowd

Basil received information that some of the MPs currently supporting Weerawansa and some of the 17 UNP defectors were unhappy with the conduct of the government.

He also heard that if there is a split within the Weerawansa faction and the 17 UNP defectors, especially in the backdrop of the minority parties supporting the government currently holding discussions to arrive at a collective decision during the budget, there could be trouble ahead.

Basil immediately decided to speak to the Weerawansa faction and the UNP defectors to discuss their problems and resolve them.

Basil tapped UNP defector Rajitha Senaratne to get information related to the group while he used Weerawansa to gather information about the JVP defectors.

Following the information gathered by him, Basil prepared a report and presented it to the President for approval. After receiving Presidential approval, Basil started to act on his new plan.

Basil planned to get the 17 UNP defectors to join the SLFP and to appoint them as SLFP electoral organisers. He believed that by doing so, he could at least temporarily solve the main problem of the defectors and get them to support the government.

Objection

However, the President objected to appointing M.H. Mohomad, P. Dayaratne, Gamini Lokuge and Dharmadasa Banda as electoral organisers. He said these MPs did not have support to win an election.

Basil responded by saying that although it was true, the President should act to at least temporarily resolve the issue till the budget is over.

The next problem that cropped up was to decide on the present SLFP organisers who would have to be removed to make way for the UNP defectors. The President informed SLFP General Secretary, Minister Maithripala Sirisena to appoint UNP defectors to electorates that are currently held by SLFP organisers supportive of former President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Samaraweera.

Sirisena objected to the proposal outright and said SLFP organisers could not be thrown out in such a manner.

He proposed that the UNP defectors could be made co-organisers with the SLFP organisers. The President however did not agree with the proposal.

"Rather than the electoral organisers outside parliament, what I need now are those who are in parliament right now. Basil has told me that the government would be faced with a huge challenge during the budget. He has proposed that we appoint the 17 UNP defectors as organisers and keep them happy till the end of the budget," the President said. Sirisena however was not willing to budge and stood his ground on behalf of the SLFP organisers.

Sure to lose

"Don't worry Maithri, except for two or three of the 17 UNP defectors, the rest would definitely lose at the next general election," the President said.

Sirisena finally relented and agreed to go along with the President's proposal.

A few days after this discussion, all SLFP organisers received a letter from the SLFP Headquarters. The letter said that the party had arrived at a decision to remove all weak SLFP organisers to make way for the 17 UNP defectors to be appointed as SLFP organisers. The letter also called on all the organisers to attend a meeting chaired by the President on October 2 to discuss this issue.

After the letter was sent, Basil's next move was to give publicity to this decision. He released this news to a few selected media houses.

Basil informed the chosen media institutions to run the story saying the President has decided to appoint the 17 UNP defectors as SLFP organisers and to get a quote confirming the story from Senaratne.

Wimal's bid to join the govt. and MR's stalling tactics

The problems among the JVP defectors led by Wimal Weerawansa keep intensifying due to the lack of government recognition for the so-called 'sacrifices' made by them.

According to the defectors, they have not received the anticipated state patronage although they have defected from the JVP to support the government.

Many of the central committee meetings of the newly formed National Freedom Front (NFF) of the defectors have ended in heated arguments on the need for them to officially join the government, accept portfolios and build their political futures on it.

Whenever Weerawansa went to Basil Rajapakse with this message from the NFF members, he was asked to continue to act as an independent party for a bit longer, as there were no portfolios in the government to be given to the defectors.

However, a few weeks back Weerawansa met Basil once more, but this time, he wanted to give the latter a 'warning.'

Discontentment

Weerawansa informed Basil that the discontentment among the NFF members with regard to the government has grown to massive proportions and that even he was unable to control it. He said one of the reasons for their unhappiness was the fact that they have not yet been offered any portfolios and posts in the government.

Weerawansa said if this trend continued, there was a chance that some of the members would either return to the JVP fold or act independently during the budget. He added that there was an urgent need to address the issues faced by the JVP defectors.

Basil proposed that it would be better if the NFF members could join the UPFA and accept portfolios rather than accepting portfolios while being outside the government.

Weerawansa said that Nandana Gunathileka was having discussions on forming a possible alliance with the JHU. He said that it would be best if the NFF could form an alliance with the JHU and support the government through that.

However, Basil did not show much interest in Weerawansa's idea. He said that the JHU too had no option but to become stakeholders of the UPFA as it did not have a proper electoral base and therefore, there was no point in forming an alliance with a party that does not have a base.

Basil advised Weerawansa to take steps to sabotage the discussions between Gunathileka and the JHU and for the NFF to join the UPFA.

Basil's way

Weerawansa then carried Basil's message to the NFF MPs. He said that Basil had proposed a way where the defectors could receive positions in the government. Weerawansa also told several MPs who were close to him that the President was not too pleased with the dialogue initiated by Gunathileka with the JHU.

However, by this time, Gunathileka had already held several rounds of discussions with the JHU's Athuraliye Ratana Thero, on the possibility of forming an alliance between the NFF and the JHU.

During the discussions it was decided that an alliance be formed in a manner that would not harm the identity of either party, to join the UPFA at the next general election following an agreement on several conditions. Although the new alliance would present candidates through the UPFA list, a separate political campaign should be held for them in each district it was decided. The duo believed that if they do not tag along, the new alliance would be meted out step-motherly treatment by the Rajapakses during a presidential or general election.

Not interested

However, Basil did not show much interest in the formation of a new alliance between the NFF and the JHU. Therefore, while using Weerawansa to hinder the process of forming an alliance from within the NFF, Basil decided to use JHU's Champika Ranawaka and Udaya Gammanpila to stall the process from the JHU side.

Weerawansa has already unleashed Basil's plan within the NFF. He has already told the NFF MPs that it would be more advantageous for them to join the government as an independent party rather than through an alliance with the JHU.

Gunathileka's elaborate plan of forming an alliance with the JHU has now become a subject that has the support of only a handful of NFF members.

The capture of Kilinochchi and the Indian factor

That Kilinochchi is just a few kilometres away from being captured by the security forces has become the 'hot news' being flashed across the country by the government. There is a huge media hype being built up.

Members of the government have also taken upon themselves the task of giving ample publicity to this "news." They say that irrespective of the high cost of living, high rate of unemployment, the people are looking forward to see the security forces capture Kilinochchi.

On the other hand, the government also boasts of the international support it has mustered. According to the government China, Pakistan, India and the United States are all supportive of the government.

The President addressing the cabinet of ministers before leaving to address the UN general assembly last month said the Indian government had extended its fullest support to the government's operation to capture Kilinochchi.

However, this statement made by the President has now upset the Indians given the political troubles brewing in Tamil Nadu.

Political storm

The President would never have imagined when making the statement that there was soon going to be a political storm in South India. The South Indian political arena became a hive of activity during the past week.

The rhetoric of government ministers and the army commander of capturing Kilinochchi has resulted in a sea change in the South Indian political platform which is now once again supportive of the LTTE.

Several Tamil political parties in South India held discussions on launching a massive protest against the Sri Lankan security forces targeting civilians in Kilinochchi and Mullaitivu in the battle to gain control of the area and against the support extended to the Sri Lankan armed forces by the Indian government.

Till now it has been small parties and individuals like Vaiko and Subramaniam who have raised a voice on this matter in South India. However, what shocked many was the move by the Communist Party of India, which holds 24 seats in the South Indian government, announcing that it would take leadership in the protest to "save the Tamil people in Sri Lanka.' The Communist Party also announced that they have organised a sathyagraha for October 3.

Flood of letters

A few hours after the Communist Party announcement, many small political parties started to write letters pledging their support to the cause.

However, the most shocking turn of events was the revelation of the contents of the letter sent to the Communist Party by former South Indian chief minister, Jayalalitha Jeyaram, who has always stood against the LTTE.

Jeyaram in her letter informed the Communist Party that since there was a huge exodus of Tamil people from the north of Sri Lanka, it was now time to rise against it and that she too would join the fight.

This issue received much prominence in the South Indian media. Many Indian political analysts believed that the huge momentum in South India to come to the rescue of the Tamil people in northern Sri Lanka and the anger against the Sri Lankan security forces had prompted Jeyaram to change her stance.

Jeyaram's move disturbed Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Karunanidhi. He too decided to break his silence and announced that he too would launch a 'fight' to 'save' the Tamils in Sri Lanka.

He also charged that Jeyaram, who always kept silent whenever he spoke on behalf of the Tamil people in Sri Lanka, made a sudden change in her stance in order to win the next election, which is not too far away.

Separate fight

The Indian media announced that another South Indian political leader, Ramdoss had also decided to launch a separate fight on behalf of the Tamil people in Sri Lanka.

The South Indian politicians are thus now engaged in a competition with each other to come to the rescue of the Tamil people in Sri Lanka.

The central government of India, which has so far remained silent, would no doubt be forced to break its silence in the next few days given the growing tension in South India.

Meanwhile, yet another interesting piece of news came to light in South India.

Key factor

This was one factor which saw Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh dodging meeting President Mahinda Rajapakse on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. In fact the President's Office made a formal request to meet the Indian Premier before he left for New York but there was no response from New Delhi.

Apart from the growing tension in Tamil Nadu, the Indian Prime Minister is also irked at the President's failure to honour the promises made at their earlier meetings to table a political package and ensure the safety of civilians. The High Commission in Colombo in fact has informed the government that it won't be business as usual if the humanitarian crisis aggravates.

Further Manmohan Singh is said to be piqued at Colombo sabotaging the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement which was to be signed during the SAARC Summit but later abandoned due to what was seen as orchestrated protests from within the Rajapakse Government.

War of words over Fonseka and the electoral reform battle

Given the fast paced political developments in Sri Lanka the President had his plate full of problems and last week due to the Ramazan festival the cabinet meeting was postponed from Wednesday to Thursday but the Security Council meeting was held on Wednesday where the current status of the war was discussed.

Details of this discussion of course cannot be divulged due to national security considerations but suffice it to say that the President while confident of capturing Kilinochchi is concerned at the ferocity of the battles currently being waged.

The security forces have encountered highly fortified positions of the Tigers making progress very slow in addition to the Tigers introducing some of their top fighters including suicide cadres into the battlefield.

Electoral reforms

But the war front was not discussed at Thursday's cabinet meeting with the focus being on the proposed electoral reforms for the local authorities and the global economic crisis.

It was Urban Development Minister Dinesh Gunawardena who had submitted a memorandum recommending the electoral reforms which envisaged returning to the old ward system.

When this memorandum was taken up for discussion, there was a heated debate with the CWC of Minister Arumugam Thondaman having forwarded counter proposals. The CWC argued that the changes proposed by Gunawardena would marginalise the minority parties.

In fact before Thursday's cabinet meeting there was a meeting in parliament where representatives of the CWC, TNA, SLMC, UPF, ACMC and Mano Ganesan's WPF with Minister Muthu Sivalingam in the chair met to discuss the proposed reforms and the thinking was that it should be opposed since the move was an attempt to marginalise the minorities.

This meeting also saw all parties adopting a proposal by Minister Thondaman to condemn Army Commander Sarath Fonseka's statement that Sri Lanka belonged to the Sinhalese and that the minorities should not make undue demands. Among those present were Thondaman, R. Yogarajan, Rauf Hakeem, Hussein Bhaila, and P. Radhakrishnan.

Be that as it may when the electoral reforms were taken up in cabinet, the CWC proposed changes to the Gunawardena report.

Balance

The CWC said the original proposal was for 70% of the members to be elected on a ward basis while 30% was to be on proportional representation. The CWC argued that of the 30% at least 10% should be given to the minorities where there was no representation.

After listening to the arguments for and against, the President knew any decision in the lead up to the budget could impact on the government and decided to play for time.

The President said he prefers the ward system and said going by the provincial council election results there could be lessons learned.

Better representation

He said the CWC polled 48,000 votes in Sabaragamuwa under the PR system but could not get a single member elected and that such a situation was unacceptable. He added under the ward system there will be better representation for the minorities as well though in reality that would not be the case in areas where the Sinhalese are a majority. Therefore he said the ward system must be brought in.

However Constitutional Affairs Minister D.E.W. Gunasekera did not buy into that argument and said as much. He used reverse psychology to swing the ministers' thinking by referring to the Colombo population.

Gunasekera said if the ward system is used in Colombo for example, only the minority party candidates will win given the ethnic composition and as such the issue should be looked at from a national perspective.

This electoral reality shook the ministers and it was decided to defer a decision for next week so that all angles can be looked at.

Govt. ponders economic crisis and Ranil's projection

With the cabinet having decided to defer a decision on the electoral reforms, the focus shifted to the economy and the US fall out on Sri Lanka in the context of the US$ 700 billion bail out package proposed by Congress.

It was Environment Minister Champika Ranawaka who broached the subject and proposed appointing a committee to study the ramifications for Sri Lanka in the overall economic meltdown in the West.

Making their contribution at the discussion were Ministers Champika Ranawaka, G.L. Peiris, Sarath Amunugama and Mahinda Samarasinghe where the positive aspect of oil prices coming down was stressed.

The President as Finance Minister however was not prepared to be rushed on the matter and said consideration can be given for the appointment of a committee comprising those handling the economy.

With that said the President made reference to a statement made by UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe on the status of the economy. Rajapakse said Wickremesinghe had at a meeting in his Cambridge office two days earlier opined the economy will crash within the next six months and all he has to do is wait and power will fall into his lap.

That is his thinking, the President had said and chipping in was Minister Rajitha Senaratne who reassured Rajapakse there was no cause for worry on that score.

"When we were there also he used to come up with such theories time and again to keep everyone happy whenever he faced a crisis and this is yet another such situation," Senaratne said.

Not long after the cabinet meeting ended Wickremesinghe was informed by a minister of the reference to him and asked whether he in fact made such a statement and in fact believed the economy will crash in six months.

Taken aback the UNP Leader said there was no such discussion at his office but that he had a general discussion with Nimal Welgama who incidentally heads the Island newspapers and is a member of the Monetary Board.

The UNP Leader said Welgama had suggested that the two parties get together and that he (Wickremesinghe) should manage the economy while Rajapakse prosecutes the war in the best interest of the country.

"I told Nimal that the economy is in trouble and it will heighten in the months to come and that I do not want to accept any office without a peoples' mandate and take responsibility at this stage for a crashing economy. There was no party discussion on the issue but a mere response to a proposal made by Nimal," Wickremesinghe told the minister.

Jayalalitha fires warning shot

Former South Indian Chief Minister Jayalalitha Jeyaram in a letter to the Communist Party of India stated her stance on the plight of the Tamil people in northern Sri Lanka.

"I am saddened by the suffering of the Tamil people in northern as well as other parts of Sri Lanka. Therefore, my party and I will directly extend our fullest support to the fast launched by the Communist Party calling on authorities to help the Tamil people out of this misery.

"Although I cannot get directly involved in this work due to security reasons, my secretary will take all the necessary steps to help you. Also, district secretaries from my party would join the fasts and protests organised on the issue in other parts of the state.

"I will not move away from this battle to ensure the security of the innocent Tamil civilians living in northern Sri Lanka. In this battle, apart from their security, I will also concentrate on their properties and human rights. Until all these issues are addressed I will continue to exert pressure on the Sri Lankan government.""

I AM BRAINLESS, SO PLEASE EXCUSE ME !!!!!!